• First quarter results supported by strong grower demand for crop inputs, increased potash shipments to key global markets, higher fertilizer operating rates and lower costs.
  • Maintaining full-year 2024 Retail adjusted EBITDA and fertilizer sales volume guidance ranges.

Note: All amounts are in US dollars except as otherwise noted

SASKATOON, Saskatchewan (May 9, 2024) - Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced today its first quarter 2024 results, with net earnings of $165 million ($0.32 diluted net earnings per share). First quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA1 was $1.1 billion and adjusted net earnings per share1 was $0.46.

“We continued to see strong crop input demand, a normalization of product margins for our North American Retail business and increased global potash shipments in the first quarter. Our results highlighted the capabilities of our flexible, low-cost production assets and downstream distribution network to efficiently supply our customers’ needs,” commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien’s President and CEO.

“We expect growth in Retail earnings and fertilizer sales volumes compared to the prior year and have maintained our 2024 guidance ranges. Our focus remains on strengthening our capability to serve growers and enhancing our core businesses to improve the quality of our earnings and free cash flow,” added Mr. Seitz.

Highlights2:

  • Generated net earnings of $165 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2024, down from the same period in 2023 primarily due to lower net fertilizer selling prices. This was partially offset by increased Retail earnings, higher fertilizer sales volumes and lower natural gas costs.
  • Nutrien Ag Solutions (“Retail”) adjusted EBITDA increased to $77 million in the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to higher gross margin for crop nutrients and crop protection products supported by strong grower demand and a normalization of product margins in North America.
  • Potash adjusted EBITDA declined to $530 million in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower net selling prices, which more than offset higher sales volumes. We increased potash production, supported by continued advancement of mine automation initiatives, and reduced our controllable cash cost of product manufactured per tonne.
  • Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA declined to $464 million in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower net selling prices for all major nitrogen products, which more than offset higher sales volumes and lower natural gas costs. Ammonia production increased in the first quarter, driven by higher utilization rates in Trinidad.
  • Initiated a process to divest our Retail assets in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay to provide greater focus on our core Retail businesses and enhance the quality of earnings and free cash flow.

  1. This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section.
  2. Our discussion of highlights set out on this page is a comparison of the results for the three months ended March 31, 2024 to the results for the three months ended March 31, 2023, unless otherwise noted.

Management’s Discussion and Analysis

The following management’s discussion and analysis (“MD&A”) is the responsibility of management and is dated as of May 8, 2024. The Board of Directors (“Board”) of Nutrien carries out its responsibility for review of this disclosure principally through its Audit Committee, composed entirely of independent directors. The Audit Committee reviews and, prior to its publication, approves this disclosure pursuant to the authority delegated to it by the Board. The term “Nutrien” refers to Nutrien Ltd. and the terms “we”, “us”, “our”, “Nutrien” and “the Company” refer to Nutrien and, as applicable, Nutrien and its direct and indirect subsidiaries on a consolidated basis. Additional information relating to Nutrien (which, except as otherwise noted, is not incorporated by reference herein), including our annual report dated February 22, 2024 (“2023 Annual Report”), which includes our annual audited consolidated financial statements and MD&A, and our annual information form dated February 22, 2024, each for the year ended December 31, 2023, can be found on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov. No update is provided to the disclosure in our 2023 annual MD&A except for material information since the date of our annual MD&A. The Company is a foreign private issuer under the rules and regulations of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”).

This MD&A is based on and should be read in conjunction with the Company’s unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as at and for the three months ended March 31, 2024 (“interim financial statements”) based on International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board and prepared in accordance with International Accounting Standard (“IAS”) 34 “Interim Financial Reporting”, unless otherwise noted. This MD&A contains certain non-GAAP financial measures and ratios and forward-looking statements, which are described in the “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” and the “Forward-Looking Statements” sections, respectively.

Market Outlook and Guidance

Agriculture and Retail Markets

  • We expect US corn plantings of approximately 90 million acres in 2024 and soybean plantings of approximately 87 million acres. US planting progress is in line with historical average levels and fertilizer application rates have been strong. Wet weather has recently delayed planting progress and fertilizer application in the Corn Belt.
  • Brazilian growers are finalizing their soybean harvest, and favorable weather conditions resulted in safrinha corn planted area exceeding initial expectations. Soybean margins are expected to improve from the compressed levels in 2023 and support growth in planted acreage and crop input demand in the second half of 2024.
  • Australian soil moisture conditions vary regionally but remain supportive for this upcoming growing season and the Indian monsoon is projected to produce average to above-average precipitation, supporting yield potential and grower demand for crop inputs.

Crop Nutrient Markets

  • Global potash supply and demand has been relatively balanced as increased shipments have been required to meet historically strong demand in the first quarter. We have maintained our 2024 full-year potash shipment forecast of 68 to 71 million tonnes.
  • We are seeing strong potash demand in North America for the spring application season as channel inventories were tight to start 2024. Potash demand in Southeast Asia has been supported by lower inventory levels compared to the prior year and favorable economics for key crops such as oil palm and rice. China’s potash imports remained strong in the first quarter of 2024 supported by a step-change in domestic consumption but are expected to decline on a full-year basis compared to the record levels in 2023.
  • Global nitrogen markets have fluctuated in 2024 driven by seasonal buying patterns, production outages and uncertainty over Chinese urea export restrictions and India’s urea import requirements. The US nitrogen supply and demand balance remains relatively tight, in particular for ammonia and UAN, with net nitrogen imports down 21 percent on a fertilizer year basis compared to the historical average.
  • Phosphate fertilizer prices remained firm through the first quarter of 2024 due to strong demand in the Northern Hemisphere, supportive Indian DAP purchases, Chinese export restrictions and production outages. Prices have softened in the second quarter driven primarily by lower seasonal demand.

Financial and Operational Guidance

  • We are maintaining our Retail adjusted EBITDA and fertilizer sales volume guidance ranges as market fundamentals and operational performance have been in line with our previous expectations.
  • Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.65 to $1.85 billion reflects expectations for increased crop nutrient sales volumes and margins for our North American business in the first half of 2024 and improved crop input margins in Brazil during the second half of the year. Guidance assumes a full year of earnings from our Retail assets in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay.
  • Potash sales volumes guidance of 13.0 to 13.8 million tonnes assumes a more even split between first and second half volumes compared to the prior year. Nitrogen sales volumes guidance of 10.6 to 11.2 million tonnes assumes higher operating rates at our North American and Trinidad plants and growth in sales of upgraded products such as urea and nitrogen solutions.
  • Effective tax rate on adjusted earnings guidance was lowered primarily due to a change to our expected geographic mix of earnings.

All guidance numbers, including those noted above are outlined in the table below. Refer to page 65 of Nutrien’s 2023 Annual Report for related assumptions and sensitivities.

For more information, see Nutrien's full report.