A new GEOGLAM Crop Monitor report is warning that El Niño conditions have returned and could intensify into a very strong weather event by late 2026, raising concerns for crop production and food security in vulnerable regions.
The report, prepared with contributions from CGIAR Climate Action and partner organizations, projects El Niño conditions will persist through March 2027. Forecast models show a 63% chance the event could reach very strong intensity between November and January, when its effects are expected to peak.
While the outlook does not point to widespread global crop failure, researchers say it gives governments, agricultural funders and food system stakeholders a critical window to prepare for possible disruptions.
Historical data show El Niño impacts vary widely by crop and region. Globally, rice yields during previous El Niño events have fallen about 1% to 1.5% below trend, while soybean yields have typically increased by 1.5% to 2%. Maize production has often remained relatively stable on a global scale, as losses in some regions have been balanced by gains in others.
For seed companies and crop developers, those shifting patterns highlight the importance of regional adaptation and resilient seed systems.
The GEOGLAM report identified Southern Africa, Central America, India and Australia as regions facing elevated crop-yield risks. In Southern Africa, the main maize-growing season is expected to align with the projected peak of the event, increasing the likelihood of production stress in countries such as Malawi and Mozambique, where maize is a staple crop and major source of farm income.
Researchers noted that no two El Niño events develop in exactly the same way. Their effects can vary depending on intensity, timing and interactions with other ocean and atmospheric conditions.
Still, historical patterns and current climate models provide enough information for early intervention.
The report draws on long-term investments in agricultural data systems, including crop distribution mapping and subnational production records. Tools developed through the International Food Policy Research Institute and CGIAR Climate Action, such as the Spatial Production Allocation Model and HarvestStat, helped provide the agricultural intelligence behind the climate analysis.
That data gives stakeholders a more detailed view of risk by linking weather forecasts to crop-specific vulnerabilities and production concentrations.
For the seed sector, this type of intelligence can help guide breeding priorities, seed placement strategies and adaptation planning, particularly for regions with limited capacity to absorb climate shocks.
The report also highlighted the disproportionate risk facing smallholder farmers, many of whom lack access to irrigation, crop insurance, financial reserves and advisory support. In those systems, delayed rainfall, drought or flooding tied to El Niño can quickly disrupt planting and threaten food supplies.
Researchers said the most effective response will depend on turning forecasts into action, including closer crop monitoring, timely agronomic guidance, early support for vulnerable growers and financial tools tied to climate risk management.
As El Niño strengthens, the report suggests the ability of seed systems and agricultural policymakers to respond quickly could play a major role in limiting production losses and protecting food security in the months ahead.
Source: CGIAR, "What a stronger El Niño could mean for food systems"