Domestic and global impacts discussed during ASTA's Field Crop Seed Convention
Dan Basse with farmers Jeff Mortenson and Randy Madden. (ASTA photos)
By Chris Lusvardi
For more photos from the event, go to the Seed Today Facebook page.
Orlando, FL (December 12, 2024) – As the American Seed Trade Association (ASTA) Field Crop Seed Convention took place Dec. 10-13 in Orlando, FL, the seed industry is looking ahead to the future amid economic uncertainty both domestically and globally.
ASTA Chair Dan Foor says now is the time for activation and engagement as policies and regulations change. He notes the association is stronger than ever.
“Now more than ever it’s important to have a strong association for the seed industry,” says Foor, vice president for Remington Seeds.
Two Sides of the Fence
As the agriculture industry looks to the year ahead, Dan Basse says ag has a good and bad side of the fence. The livestock side is doing well, he says, while prices are depressed on the grain side.
Basse expects U.S. net farm crop income to stay depressed but improve in livestock and dairy based on tightening supplies.
Basse, who spoke Dec. 11, notes a looming economic and political war between China and the United States threatens to alter ag economic patterns as the world’s geopolitics are quickly changing.
“Globalism is dying,” say Basse, the president of AgResource speaking to an ASTA group for the 12th year in a row. “The speed will depend on the new administration.”
The growing season in Brazil is becoming more important than ever as Basse says crops there are thriving.
In terms of what to expect for the U.S., Basse says the ag barometer skyrocketed following the election showing farmers to be the most optimistic since the pandemic with confidence that the farm economy will grow. But Basse says American agriculture needs demand drivers which they currently don’t have.
In 2025, Basse says corn production costs are expected to rise 2-3% to $881/acre vs. $869/acre in 2024.
“They’ll have to reach a little more into their pockets for the crop ahead,” Basse says. “This is where the anxiety comes from for the farmer.”
Basse says he wishes the outlook was different, but he expects there to be opportunities amid the turbulence.
“Agriculture isn’t down and out forever,” Basse says. “There’s always something that happens to tip the scales, but we don’t know what it is today.”
Looking Ahead: Farmer Forecast on Future Ag Trends
Basse discussed with farmers Randy Madden and Jeff Mortenson the impact of seed on the work they do and what they see for the future of the industry.
Mortenson, who is from northwest Minnesota says seed genetics have improved since he started farming.
“Since I started, yield improvements have been huge,” he says. “We used to produce canola between 1,800 and 2,000 lbs./acre. It’s a disappointment now but now we get 4,200 lbs./acre. We wouldn’t be there without genetics and technology.”
Madden says technology could change the way seed companies interact with their customers.
“The demographics of growers is changing,” he says. “The traditional sales and distribution model is not creating value, so there are savings to be had. Technology is demanding ways to change and how we interact with companies. Changes are coming rapidly, and the seed industry needs to get on board.”
Mortenson says farmers are concerned about commodity prices after producing a great crop but receiving a kick in the gut to break even.
“You don’t realize how much stress this causes,” he says. “Commodity prices should have been better.”
As farmers feel financial pressure, they say equipment purchases will be reevaluated.
“Equipment delivery is the first to feel the brakes,” Madden says. “The longer the margin environment persists, the seed industry will be dragged into it. It puts pressure on seed delivery of technology to improve reliability and the quality of what we’re growing. Customers have expectations given the price we pay.”
Managing Unpredictability From Extreme Weather Events
Global weather volatility remains ahead, says Shawn Hackett, president and CEO of Hackett Financial Advisors, which provides agricultural commodity analysis.
He says the activity of the sun and sea surface temperatures are the main variables that drive the climate.
“There is no steady climate,” Hackett says. “That doesn’t exist. It never has. It’s always changing. We are in an era of weather volatility.”
Hackett expects the volatility to continue for at least the next 20 years, with the next 10-15 years being the most difficult. As a result, he says there will continue to be price volatility in agriculture.
If cycles repeat, Hackett says cooler temperatures can be expected in the next 10-15 years. That will lead to shorter growing cycles with more risk from frost and more moisture.
“The volatility will shift from drought and heat to a different subset,” Hackett says. “We will have to grow more with less heating degree days. Frost and floods will be variables. We will need to focus on the next generation of seed technology.”
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